Seminar Series: EXTENDED COHORT-COMPONENT APPROACH FOR HOUSEHOLDS PROJECTION AT SUB-NATIONAL LEVELS

EXTENDED COHORT-COMPONENT APPROACH FOR HOUSEHOLDS PROJECTION AT SUB-NATIONAL LEVELS This paper discusses the five core ideas of the extended cohort-component method known as ProFamy for simultaneously forecasting of family households, living arrangements and population. Employing the ProFamy method, this paper demonstrates that household forecasting at the state (or provincial) level requires: (1) a census or a large survey micro data file, (2) national standard schedules of the age-sex-specific demographic rates, and (3) projected summary measures of fertility, mortality, marriage/union formation and dissolution, and migration. After the forecasts for the parental state wherein the sub-state area is located are done, forecasts of households of various types and sizes for a sub-state area can be produced based on a census or a large survey micro data file and the widely recognized ratio trend extrapolation methods.